Wednesday Morning, December 19th
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording:
Sunlight As Cancer Prevention;
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
FE 74.40 Bid
AMSG 27.10 Bid
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
LFG 29.60
RDN 11.30
NSR 28.10
NLY 18 Bid
SSYS 27 = 29.30 Gap
QXM 9 Bid
GIGM 19.50 Bid
OIS 32.80 Bid
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
DCP 22.50 Gap
Dollar Man Ideas:
AXTI 5.20 = 5.90 Gap
GVHR 6.05 Bid
The Composite has resistance at 26.36, 20-day MA;
Industrials have resistance at 13,300 to 13,310, 200-day MA;
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: VZ, ADCT, and CIM, a Chinese stock;
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains December 19 includes: OSK, CEDC, SNA, MYGN, CCMP, CPE, GMCR.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
Monday night the Asian markets were all lower with the exception of Hong Kong. However, Europe came in nearly 1% higher after the ECB announced a $500 billion cash infusion into its banking system through the purchase of debt obligations. Hearing the FED is also contemplating doing something similar in the days ahead. Our futures rallied overnight on the ECB news which caused the market to gap up Tuesday morning. Within the first few minutes of trading the SPX hit 1457 level which was eleven points higher than Monday´s close. The index then proceeded to back off as sellers once again took control. The market retreated enough to close the opening gap as the SPX sold off to 1436 by 12:00. Finding support and displaying a short term positive RSI divergence, the market reversed higher. By 2:30 the SPX had recovered all its losses as the index made a new intraday high at 1460 before closing the session at 1455. For the day, the SPX/DOW gained 0.55% while the NDX/NAZ tacked on 0.65%. Short term momentum is now rising after establishing positive RSI divergence earlier at the lows.
As you are aware, we have been watching the action of the MACD with respect to the daily charts very closely over the past several days. We have been and will continue to study the MACD movement to see if any positive divergence may be developing. While our last rally showed impulsive type action on the MACD the recent selling has been viewed as more reflexive in nature. This is potentially a bullish omen but one that needs to be monitored closely over the coming days. Truthfully, we´ll just have to wait and see how this plays out but it´s fair to say that there are some signs of improvement underneath the surface. The carving out of any type of bottom is a process and thus we have to expect more choppy type action going forward. Please understand that it´s far too early to call a bottom at this time.
Resulting from Tuesday´s action, many of the major indexes produced bullish hammers on their candlestick charts. Hammers are formed when stocks/indexes close near their intraday highs after being quite a bit lower during the session. These hammer formations are particularly significant following many days of selling since they tend to suggest that sellers are dwindling over the near term. By itself, this does not suggest that the current downtrend is over. We are still in a confirmed downtrend but today´s action indicates a pause in the selling. We will need to see several more days of improved price and technical action before even suggesting one get more aggressive on the long side. For now, we recommend that you keep things light and wait for more evidence to materialize.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. TWO DAY LOSING STREAK SNAPPED
The headline: ECB puts half a trillion into banking system and raw material, energy shares bounce.
Pete Najarian says energy and technology led the market Tuesday.
Jeff Macke considers the “action’ in stocks Tuesday, to be bullish.
2. AFTER HOURS ACTION: FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
The headline: FITB Plans To Set Aside $275 Million In The Fourth Quarter To Cover Loan Losses.
Pete Najarian says Forget this stock, instead he recommends following Warren Buffet into WFC and USB.
3. JUST BUY IT?
What's the trade ahead of NKE earnings Wednesday after the bell?
Jeff Macke recommends taking profits. He says with shares up 29% it´s probably a good time to sell. Or, hold the stock long term into the 2008 Olympics.
Guy Adami recommends buying NKE on any pullback.
4. GOLDEN BOY NO LONGER?
The headline: GS Earnings Beat Estimates, But Shares Fall On Uncertain Outlook.
Goldman´s CFO said Tuesday, “We're cautious about the near-term outlook for our businesses.’
Pete Najarian said the cautious outlook hurt GS.
Karen Finerman wishes they had been more “transparent’. However, she remains long.
Guy Adami remains bullish on GS.
5. AFTER HOURS ACTION: TD AMERITRADE
The headline: AMTD Raised Its Outlook For Q1 Earnings On Tuesday, And Said Average Daily Trades Per Client Rose To A Record In November.
Pete Najarian likes this stock for its CEO Joe Moglia.
Guy Adami says it might be a little ahead of itself cautions. I wouldn´t go diving in, he says.
6. APPLE KEEPS I ON JAPAN
The headline: AAPL In Talks With Mobile Operator NTT DoCoMo To Sell iPhone In Japan.
Pete Najarian says the stock should rally on this news says Pete Najarian. He adds on a pullback it could be a buy.
7. POPS AND DROPS
DWA popped 9%. Jeff Macke doesn´t think the stock is going anywhere.
NVLS popped 3%. Pete Najarian says this stock has something going on.
CLWR popped 9%. Pete Najarian says this is the third day in a row. He thinks it could be a takeover target.
ADBE popped 2%. Jeff Macke says Long-term buy.
SPC popped 1%. Guy Adami isn´t impressed.
BIIB popped 1%. Karen Finerman says it was crushed last week, hardly a pop.
WWIN popped 21%. Jeff Macke likes that this pop signal deal making could be picking up.
GRMN dropped 7%. Karen Finerman expects the stock to go lower.
8. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR WEDNESDAY
Jeff Macke recommends BBY.
Guy Adami likes ORCL.
Pete Najarian prefers CY.
Karen Finerman doesn´t have a stock pick.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Philips Electronics on Wednesday said it would buy back $7.2 billion (5 billion euros) of its own stock over the next two years, as the Dutch conglomerate continues to use its cash on either returning money to shareholders or acquisitions. – MarketWatch
Morgan Stanley (MS) before Wednesday's opening bell said its fourth-quarter results reflect an additional $5.7 billion of mortgage-related write-downs in November. Including the $3.7 billion write-down as of Oct. 31, which was announced on Nov. 7, the total fourth-quarter mark-down on mortgage exposure was about $9.4 billion. The company reported a fourth-quarter loss from continuing operations of $3.59 billion, or $3.61 a share. Morgan Stanley Wednesday said it has entered into an agreement with China Investment Corp. to issue new capital of about $5 billion through equity units with mandatory conversion into common stock. China Investment Corp.'s total passive ownership in Morgan Stanley common shares, including the conversion of the equity units, will be 9.9% or less of total shares outstanding, the company said. - MarketWatch
Level 3 Communications Inc. (LVLT) on Wednesday said it will sell the advertising distribution business of Vyvx LLC to DG FastChannel Inc. (DGIT). Vyvx is a wholly owned subsidiary of Level 3. Under the terms of the deal, Level 3 will receive $129 million payable in cash. The purchase price is subject to customary working capital and certain other post-closing adjustments. The sale is subject to regulatory approvals as well as certain other customary closing conditions, and is expected to close in the first quarter of 2008. Level 3 will retain ownership of Vyvx and its core broadcast business including all of the Vyvx Services Broadcast Business' content distribution capabilities. - MarketWatch
M&A Activity:
BAE Systems (BAESY), the London aerospace and defense firm, said on Wednesday that it agreed to sell its surveillance and attack business for $240 million cash to a unit of Cobham Plc, the Wimborne, U.K., producer of aerospace and defense systems. BAE expects to close the deal in the first quarter, subject to regulatory clearances. BAE said the deal furthers its efforts to focus on systems development and integration and reduce its reliance on providing subsystems. - MarketWatch
Stock Splits Coming Up:
Ex-Date Split Symbol Company
12/19 2:1 KMT Kennametal, Inc.
12/31 2:1 CAM Cameron International Corp.
1/2 2:1 TWIN Twin Disc, Inc.
1/3 2:1 CMI Cummins, Inc.
1/3 5:4 GHM Graham Corporation
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Audio-Video Equipmnt
EMR Emerson Price Target Raised Robert W. Baird Outperform $59 to $62
Biotech
MBRX Metabasis Therapeutics Initiated at CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform $5
Brokerage Services
GS Goldman Sachs Cut Price Target Punk, Ziegel & Co Sell $210 to $200
Chemicals
WLK Westlake Chemical Cut Price Target UBS Neutral $25 to $21
APEI American Public Education Initiated at Piper Jaffray Buy
PENX Penford Corp Initiated at Jefferies & Co Buy $33
AGU Agrium Upgraded from CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform to Sector Outperform
Computer Hardware
KEI Keithley Initiated at JP Morgan Underweight
LCRY LeCroy Initiated at JP Morgan Overweight
ELX Emulex Initiated at Banc of America Sec Buy $22
Computer Service
GSIC GSI Commerce Upgraded from Piper Jaffray Neutral to Buy
Computer Software
VRNT Verint Systems Upgraded from Lehman Brothers Equal-weight to Overweight
KNXA Kenexa Initiated at KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy $24
ULTI Ultimate Software Initiated at KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy $34
TTWO Take-Two Upgraded from Citigroup Hold to Buy
TTWO SOLE says comp
DOX Amdocs Upgraded from Cantor Fitzgerald Hold to Buy $42
RHT Red Hat Cut Price Target Broadpoint Capital Buy $27 to $24
Construction TEX Terex Initiated at Wachovia Outperform
JEC Jacobs Price Target Raised UBS Buy $95 to $105
Finance Companies
UBS Goldman Sachs Downgraded along with some European Banks
Foods - Mfg
BGS Goldman Sachs Downgraded $23
Gold and Silver Mining
AEM Merrill Lynch Upgraded
Healthcare Equipment
AMMD American Medical Upgraded from Piper Jaffray Neutral to Buy
OSUR OraSure Tech Initiated at Pacific Growth Equities Buy
CRA Celera Genomics Upgraded from JMP Securities Mkt Perform to Mkt Outperform
ATRC Atricure Initiated at Barrington Research Outperform $17
Healthcare Facilities
CYH Community Health Initiated at UBS Buy
UHS Universal Health Initiated at UBS Buy
Healthcare Services
RDNT RadNet Initiated at Leerink Swann Outperform
Heathcare
TTHI Transition Therapeutics Initiated at Cowen & Co Outperform
Industrial Equipment
DRC Goldman Sachs Upgraded to Neutral $40
FELE Franklin Electric Cut Price Target Robert W. Baird Underperform $37 to $35
FLS Flowserve Price Target Raised Robert W. Baird Outperform $100 to $120
TECUA Tecumseh Prods Downgraded from Robert W. Baird Outperform to Neutral $21 to $24
MWA Mueller Water Initiated at CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform
WTS Watts Ind Initiated at CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform
Insurance
ALL Allstate Cut Price Target UBS Neutral $61 to $57
CFSG China Fire & Sec Grp Initiated at Piper Jaffray Buy $18
EHTH eHealth Initiated at Jefferies & Co Buy $36
Investments
FSIN Fushi Intl Initiated at Piper Jaffray Buy
Manufacturing
AOS A.O. Smith Cut Price Target Robert W. Baird Underperform $37 to $35
BEZ Baldor Electric Cut Price Target Robert W. Baird Neutral $42 to $35
RBC Regal-Beloit Cut Price Target Robert W. Baird Neutral $54 to $51
Oil and Gas
QELP Quest Energy Partners Initiated at Wachovia Outperform
WFT Goldman Sachs Upgraded and added to Conviction Buy List
SLB Goldman Sachs Upgraded
QELP Quest Energy Partners Initiated at Stifel Nicolaus Buy $20
QELP Quest Energy Partners Initiated at RBC Capital Mkts Outperform
BP BP Downgraded from JP Morgan Overweight to Neutral
PBR Bank of America Initiated at Buy $130
QELP Quest Energy Partners Initiated at Friedman Billings Outperform $20
BHI Goldman Sachs Downgraded
GRP Grant Prideco Downgraded from Banc of America Sec Buy to Neutral $60 to $58
Personal Services HRB H & R Block Price Target Raised UBS Buy $26 to $27
Publishing
TRB Tribune Downgraded from Deutsche Securities Buy to Hold
Regional Banks
OSP OSG America Initiated at UBS Buy
WBC WABCO Holdings Initiated at JP Morgan Overweight
Restaurants
DRI Darden Restaurants Cut Price Target CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform $53 to $46
Retail Trade
NILE Blue Nile Upgraded from Citigroup Hold to Buy
Securities
Exchange NMX NYMEX Upgraded from Deutsche Securities Hold to Buy
Semiconductors
EMKR Emcore Price Target Raised Roth Capital Buy $13.80 to $16.10
FCSE FOCUS Enhancements Coverage Dropped Roth Capital
CREL Corel Upgraded from Piper Jaffray Neutral to Buy
MXIM Maxim Integrated Upgraded from Citigroup Hold to Buy
EXAR Exar Cut Price Target Caris & Company Average $13 to $10
FORM FormFactor Initiated at Broadpoint Capital Buy $39
SMTL Semitool Initiated at Broadpoint Capital Buy $10.50
VSEA Varian Semi Initiated at Broadpoint Capital Buy
Technology
ICXT ICX Technolgies Initiated at Morgan Keegan Outperform
Technology - China
STV China Digital TV Initiated at Susquehanna Financial Positive
STV Susqueharna Downgraded
Telecommunications
PLT Plantronics Upgraded from Robert W. Baird Neutral to Outperform $32
GLDN Golden Telecom Downgraded from JP Morgan Overweight to Neutral
Utilities
DYN Dynegy Initiated at UBS Buy $10
RRI Reliant Energy Initiated at UBS Buy $32
EXC Exelon Downgraded from Jefferies & Co Buy to Hold $91