This little NYT article may be bigger than it seems:
http://www.nytimes.com/

"Americans have turned more negative on prospects for the stock market than at any time in the last 20 years. That may be good news for investors."

"In the past, there have been only six market cycles when the proportion of bears reached 36 percent. Five of them were excellent times to buy stocks, and the other one was followed by a decent return."

This chart says it all:
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/08/02/business/02charts.graphix.ready.html

What do you guys think? Follow the trail of doom and go short, or abandon the crowds and go long, in anticipation of a significant market uptake?

Go Long !   Gloom and doom is what the shorts want you to grab onto (BE VERY AFRAID, S&P going to 100) .  I having been picking up stocks at nice prices on the big bad days on the way down.  In the longer term (1-3 years +) I will be happy I bought.  It would be fine if we have not hit a bottom yet, if it goes lower then stocks will get even cheaper and I will buy more.  Dividend payments will help me in the time before a recovery takes place.   Lowering that avg. cost per share is fine in my book.  Plus we will be having an election soon and I have a feeling we will be rising sometime after the new person gets sworn in.  When things look the worst thats when the smart guys pick up large chunks of equities on the cheap.  Be like Buffet......

 Be like Buffet......?  He's older than I am; 1 to 3 yrs+ may be too long!  I play very short term, so what the market does really isn't important to me -- it's what the stocks do that I'm in which is.  First of week will be interesting to me.  A lot of charts, including market, look down to me, but the indicators I use in the Bottom Fishing group are flashing an up tell (my technical approach is contrarian).  Of course, what I see as tells are not perfect.

 

Are you focusing on any particular sectors for your pick ups VTEC? I see you recently bought some solar stocks.

Not really focusing on particular sectors, mainly looking to add to postions that pay higher dividends (over 3% yield) that dip below my avg. price by more than 8 %.   I did pick up and add some Energy stocks in the form of solar and wind plays over the past couple months.  I also added some Financials and a Basic Materials stock (DOW). Plus added to my GE position, which is a hybrid Financial/Industrial.  I am not a short-term trader, most of my portfolio is geared for the long term.  Some of the Solar stocks were a shorter term trade for me but they haven't worked out that well in the past month or so. Hopefully whomever is elected in Nov will have an energy policy that includes investment in solar or at least a interest in extending credits for them. 

VTECscreamer:

Not really focusing on particular sectors, mainly looking to add to postions that pay higher dividends (over 3% yield) that dip below my avg. price by more than 8 %.

Interesting. Do you use particular screeners, or other analytics tools? 

 I used screeners at first to identify the higher paying dividend stocks and from there did some further research.  I think I used MSN.  In addition to looking at balance sheets and charts, I like to use CAPS.  It gives me a good sense of the general investor setiment for that particular stock.   I try to have my larger positions be 4 or 5 stars.  I also use the Analyst reports from Reuters, S&P, Thompson, and Sabrient to judge whether it has long term or shorter term potential.  I also look at previous news from the company to see how much of it is positive. 

Ever think about preferred stocks?  Great yields with capital gains potential!


Good Luck,
Scott
Advanced Trend Analysis

I got my butt kicked today.  The market is up for apparently no good reason again.  I honestly don't see how this market can be so resilient when the world is coming to an end.  Gold is at historic highs and financials are rising meteorically in a month?  I can't explain it.  Some things I can't understand. 

JeremyAlan:

  Gold is at historic highs and financials are rising meteorically in a month?

Gold is at historic highs?  Gold is currently $130.00+ off its high almost 5 months ago on March 17th 2008.  And look at the dollar's strength against the Yen and Euro in the the past week or so.  That is why the market is up.   The world is coming to an end?  Come on, really?  GO LONG.......