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Zecco.com » General Investing » ETF & Mutual Fund Investing » GLD, OIL, UNG
Last post 08-19-2008, 3:15 PM by Solution. 5 replies.
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  •  07-18-2008, 10:35 AM 33780

    GLD, OIL, UNG

    Reply Quote
    I bought shares of each a couple days ago, so far I'm down significantly on all of them.  I'm overall bearish on the market, but want to limit my losses too.  Does anyone agree with these purchases?  Thanks!

  •  07-19-2008, 12:36 AM 33848 in reply to 33780

    Re: GLD, OIL, UNG

    Reply Quote

    I like GLD.  I beleive its earnings were a little below expected though so that is sure to drive down the price a bit, but i considered buying it before.  Long term this company should do well.

    As far as OIL, I will be honest. I do not know much about the company.  But if you have obtained losses, you clearly just bought at a bad time according to the chart.

    UNG has been hit hard obviously because of the recent discoverey that we have a bit more natural gas than expected.  But this news will pass and it will drive the price of natural gas back up.  So I would say stick with natural gas.  But maybe instead of an ETF, consider plays in DVN, XTO, or even CHK.  They have been driven lower and this could be a great time to buy! 

    Dont get discouraged too much by some losses (atleast thats what I keep telling myself). If you continue to buy quality companies and names that make sence with economical growth, you should make a profit.

  •  07-19-2008, 12:47 AM 33849 in reply to 33780

    Re: GLD, OIL, UNG

    Reply Quote
    It seem that you like to invest on energy and mineral stocks, why don't you try to look on WEL, so far I'm up by 20% within a week. This stock related to oil, they provide a suite of integrated pressure control and related services to onshore and offshore oil and natural gas. They have a business in 10 countries but their biggest market is in North America (almost 70%). I'm not a pumper, I just want to share my experience so far with this company. Do your own research and good luck.

  •  07-19-2008, 7:38 AM 33858 in reply to 33780

    Re: GLD, OIL, UNG

    Reply Quote

    I agree with your purchases...you just bought a little early.  When you say you are bearish on the market I believe you mean "stock" market and not the commodities markets these ETF's track.  That's why you bought these as a hedge.  I also think the stock market isn't finished going to the downside either.

    GLD may be a little soft during the rest of the summer but I expect it come back and retest the highs we put in during March. Gold prices are seasonal and usually track oil also.  GLD will probably firm up by the second half of the year.

    OIL is clearly in bearish mode right now.  I too nibbled on this after the 3rd straight day of declines.  I think crude is going to the $120-$122 level.  I'll probably be a buyer down there again.  We are not out of the woods as far as high oil prices are concerned.  Could we even go as low as $100 or lower? Yes, anything is possible but I truly think any move below $100 will be short lived.  I think $100+ oil is here to stay unless something changes drastically (I don't see it happening anytime soon).  In the meantime India and China continue to consume more and more.  There are fundamental supply / demand issues at work here that we have been ignoring for decades.  Any solution will not be quickly implemented.

    UNG is usually bearish this time of year (July through mid-August -- unless we get a storm that enters the Gulf of Mexico).  UNG may pull back further having said this.  Like someone else who commented, I like CHK, DVN, APA and natural gas companies at these levels.  These stocks have been hit hard this month.  I have 600 shares of CHK and will buy more if they dip lower.  I prefer natural gas company shares to the ETF that tracks natural gas.  These will "POP" more on any good news (i.e. major discoveries, etc.), the ETF will not.  I'm ready for storms and the impending rise in natural gas price that will occur beginning later next month as people look toward the winter heating season and while cooling demand is still high.

    Your purchases will be winners sometime again.  Hopefully you didn't use up all of your capital with these purchases!

     

     

     

  •  07-19-2008, 7:05 PM 33895 in reply to 33858

    Re: GLD, OIL, UNG

    Reply Quote

    Thanks for all the advice!  Dollar-wise, so far I'm down the most on Gold, should I wait for it to retrace to the $90 level then jump back in?  I see a cup and handle developing but the handle isn't complete.  I'll probably put more money into foreign currency ETFs like FXE and FXA to to further hedge against dollar decline.  Last week really made me uncomfortable with the cash position especially if inflation and dollar decline runs wild.

  •  08-19-2008, 3:15 PM 35769 in reply to 33895

    Re: GLD, OIL, UNG

    Reply Quote
    if you think oil can go down to $90 (25% less from todays price) and so does Gold, you should book the loss in gold, why to wait for it to loose 25% if it follows oil, which is likely and re-enter gold at 650-700 level.

    what you say?
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