So I have had huge successes and huge failures i made some good picksand some bad ones. I trade based on what I think will happen in that market and in that company.

The good: I traded NTDOY back in 2007 simply because i saw that they make money on every console sold and are a lot cheaper than other companies. I also invested in SNDA because i believe in the whole play for free pay for extras type business strategy in mmorpgs. I strongly believe that games that require a community to make the experience like an mmorpg should be free and allow people to buy digital items. The reason is simple: those who play for free, level up, an d grow to enjoy the game will buy things to make their experience unique. I havetraded in the solar sector as well. AKNS was a huge winner for me trading it early in january. I belive in this company because they are like rimm in that when they miss expectations it appears to be because of company spending that will make the company worth more in the long run. 

bad ones: i traded PTR from the160s then bought in at a much lower rate and broke even (thank god). I am currently in SIRI all be it a smaller portion that i was before but it still hurts to know on my remaining shares whichg were bought at 3.51 are in the toilet and appear to be down right flushable.

 

the bottom line: otherthan what I THINK the market is doing based on simple analysis of the situation and i believe at least with my losses my perceptions have been way off. Obviously my winners were obvious winners in looking back at them. The trouble is i lack the post-rookie knowledge of the market. I honestly did not see the market going down as much as it did and as fast as it did. i am still stumped as to why ntdoy is down as much as it is as i see all the  right reasons for it to be higher right out in plain sight. What should i look into as far as further analysis of the company rather than just looking at what i believe to be right based mostly on my opinion of the company? PTR for instance was bought because of 2 things oil and china. What would you suggest i do to increase my success and minimize my losses?

Chris, your approach appears to be fundamentaly correct.  When you invest in stocks, you look for a reason why they should treade higher, especially if they have a new revenue stream or advantage over a competitor.  However, even the best investors make mistakes, like you with SIRI.  As long as your right predictions outnumber your wrong ones, you should be in good shape.

In terms of the market right now, it is extremely hard to make money in a rational way.  You can only trade stocks and quickly take your profits if stock goes up or quickly cut your loses if it goes down. However, I am sure that one day soon, we will return to the normal ways.  I also hold Nintendo and believe it will do phenomenally well once people start behaving/investing rationally.

Yeah day traders are having a ball with this market.
I wish I had piles of money to throw around, I would have been up about 30% according to my watch list.

You're doing something right, and at the same time some things extremely wrong.  What you're doing right is looking for quality, profitable companies with competitive advantages. Keep doing that.

What you're doing wrong is ignoring the price that you're paying. You need to buy stocks when the price is low, but what does that really mean? I'm not talking about just the dollar price per share, but as a multiple of the company's earnings.  You cannot have a margin of safety and ignore that. Get out of Sirius, it's not a value at any price.

Your next step, read Benjamin Graham's "The Intelligent Investor" so you stop overpaying for companies. When you start to understand what's in there, you'll realize that the market going down is an advantage to you.

gpathmedia:

Yeah day traders are having a ball with this market.
I wish I had piles of money to throw around, I would have been up about 30% according to my watch list.

That's a classic mistake that new investors make, which is not keeping cash on hand to take advantage of market weakness. What I do is keep 30% of my money in a bond fund, BND specifically. Bonds are steady investments, with monthly dividend payouts. I buy stocks whenever this percentage increases by more than 5%, and likewise when stocks are doing very well I sell some and put it into bonds. You can hedge against loss this way.

Um... I just don't have a lot of cash because I'm pretty poor, not because all of my money is illiquid at the moment.

But yeah, bonds definitely reduce volatility.

Ahhh then what we need to talk about is your total financial picture. Many people will say that they don't make enough money to invest, but what more often is true is that their expenses are too great. Is there any cost or regular expense that you have that you could reduce? Do you have credit card debt?

Is it possible to get into a line of work that you could earn more in while still being happy?

I'm 20 I don't buy anything for myself and my costs are food and utilities but I got laid off. I'm almost the most spendthrift human being I know, if everyone was like me economic growth would be completely stagnant.
PS this job market sucks... I want to be probably a financial advisor and run a hedge fund or something by my late 30's. Need to study to do that though.

Feel you on that man. I had a job loss this year too. Fortunately I work callcenters in Phoenix, so it's not hard to find a new job there. Keep at it. I'm sure you'll find something soon.

I was up 25% at the time of my peak in november and now i am down roughly 10%. i do like to buy on weakness but for some reason i looked at AKNS like wow this is cheap and completely discounted the fact that well we havent been in this bear market for that stock all that long and 52 week lows are meant to be broken inthis market. regarding siri sadly i really believed all ofthe hype with siri only to find out when the deal was done that it was too late for siri to be put in the new car models and thus it is now in the shitter. i am looking at siri as a long term possition as i am so screwed if i sell now and i know it will rebound decently once the new car models come out. why do you think siri is going to drop much lower?  Thanks for the recommended reading. i look forward to your reply.