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Zecco.com » General Investing » Screening & Picking » Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders Wha...
Last post 08-27-2008, 11:31 PM by Chrib. 58 replies.
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  •  08-24-2008, 5:50 PM 36254

    Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    List some symbols you think look interesting this week and explain why they may be worth watching.  You can also just give a technical analysis of what you expect to see the market do this week.

    If you want to argue against the use of technical analysis then do it on the thread titled "Argument Against Trading".
  •  08-24-2008, 5:58 PM 36257 in reply to 36254

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    I own SNDA and they are reporting on the 25th. I got in really low this time around and iam looking forward to seeing double digit gains in something. Note: that hasnt happened much since the market went in the crapper.
  •  08-24-2008, 6:15 PM 36262 in reply to 36254

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    I would get long some VPHM.  I have been in this stock for quite a while since it's low.  I bought a healthful lot around 8-9 and loving every minute of this uptick.  In any case, the trend looks great as the stock recovered symmetrically off its low and has no generic competition in sight. 
  •  08-24-2008, 6:32 PM 36266 in reply to 36262

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote

    Here are some upcoming events for the week that might give you a few ideas.

     

    All Times ET Time Report Period Actual Forecast Previous
    Monday 
    8/25

    10 am


    United States
    Existing home sales

    Canada
    None scheduled

    July

    4.91M

    4.86M
    Tuesday 
    8/26

    7:45 am
    9 am
    10 am
    10 am


    United States
    Retail chain index
    Case-Shiller home prices
    New-home sales
    Consumer confidence

    Canada
    None scheduled

    8/23
    June
    July
    Aug.



    --
    --
    523,000
    53.0

    0.1%
    -14.1%
    530,000
    51.9
    Wednesday 
    8/27

    8;30 am


    United States
    Durable goods orders


    Canada
    None scheduled

    July



    0.2%

    0.8%
    Thursday 
    8/28

    8:30 am



    8:30 am
    United States
    Jobless claims
    GDP

    Canada
    Current account

    8/23
    2Q


    2Q

    --
    2.7%

    432,000
    1.9%

    Friday
    8/29

    8:30 am
    8:30 am
    8:30 am
    9:45 am
    10 am


    8:30 am
    8:30 am
    United States
    Personal income
    Consumer spending
    Core PCE price index
    Chicago PMI
    Consumer sentiment

    Canada
    GDP
    Industrial prices
     







    2Q
    July

    -0.4%
    0.2%
    0.3%
    --
    62.0

    0.1%
    0.6%
    0.3%
    50.8%
    61.7
  •  08-24-2008, 7:10 PM 36273 in reply to 36262

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    JeremyAlan:
    I would get long some VPHM.  I have been in this stock for quite a while since it's low.  I bought a healthful lot around 8-9 and loving every minute of this uptick.  In any case, the trend looks great as the stock recovered symmetrically off its low and has no generic competition in sight. 


    $9 would have been a great entry.  What is your price target and what did you mean by "recovered symetrically"?  What would you recommend to be a buy point and sell point if I were to enter a position on this stock?
  •  08-24-2008, 9:07 PM 36277 in reply to 36273

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    I'm using magicformulainvesting.com to find stocks to trade, VPHM is one of the higher ranked stocks with an earnings yield of 17% and a return on capital of > 100%.  There are 99 others though.  How do you choose?  Why go long VPHM and not, say, CALM?  Is healthcare set to lead?

    Just newbie questions...
  •  08-24-2008, 9:36 PM 36278 in reply to 36277

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    Bloominonion:
    I'm using magicformulainvesting.com to find stocks to trade, VPHM is one of the higher ranked stocks with an earnings yield of 17% and a return on capital of > 100%.  There are 99 others though.  How do you choose?  Why go long VPHM and not, say, CALM?  Is healthcare set to lead?

    Just newbie questions...



    Technically, the weekly is showing a possible change in the long term trend as noted by the blue trend line in the chart below.  A break above $18 creating a higher high would be a good indication of a change in the long term trend.  A case could be made that it is trying to put in a double bottom with the lows made in July 2006 and November 2007.  To confirm this pattern the price will need to break above the peak between the two lows (approx. $18).  The trendline was broken but not with much volume.  I would put a stop on a long position just below the blue trend line.  The line should serve as support.  If it falls back below the trend line then taking profit on this trade would be wise.  Price dropping below this trend line would also bring up the possibility of shorting this stock.

    chart

    Last weeks close was also right at the 61.8% retracement value.  These retracement levels mark areas of potential resistance.

    chart with fibonacci retracement
  •  08-24-2008, 10:22 PM 36279 in reply to 36254

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    I'm watching CPSL
    It's a momo, a float queen, a China dynamo
    Market could break either way, but whichever way, I think it will be big
    If that way is up, power to the momos
    Plus great low-risk chart formation: upturned 50, broke upside of pennant Friday, wave count is 3 of 3
    Small pullback possible, for safety reasons buy above 5.16, if you're a gambler try buying a pullback.
    I'm already in myself.
  •  08-24-2008, 10:29 PM 36280 in reply to 36279

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    Chrib:
    I'm watching CPSL
    It's a momo, a float queen, a China dynamo
    Market could break either way, but whichever way, I think it will be big
    If that way is up, power to the momos
    Plus great low-risk chart formation: upturned 50, broke upside of pennant Friday, wave count is 3 of 3
    Small pullback possible, for safety reasons buy above 5.16, if you're a gambler try buying a pullback.
    I'm already in myself.


    I agree with you that it could break either way.  The weekly is showing a symmetrical triangle.  The textbook way to play that is to wait to see which way it breaks.  It could be played as either a short or a long depending on which direction it decides to move in.
  •  08-24-2008, 10:38 PM 36281 in reply to 36278

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    Jack, I didn't recognize the chart! Different timeframes :-) [this is in re: VPHM]

    I'm wary of anything that is extended, because we're in a mean market right now and extension is not the norm. I see VPHM as due for a pullback - it has done 5 waves off the low and I think it's pretty much done. I like Jack's monthly chart showing that the 61.8% retrace has been met. That means on the monthly and daily timeframes, we're at resistance. Jeremy, I'd take at least some off the table. It's done right by you, 9's a fabulous entry, but I'm not sure now is the time for greed.

    http://img176.imageshack.us/
    [link should work now]


  •  08-24-2008, 10:47 PM 36282 in reply to 36281

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    Chrib:
    Jack, I didn't recognize the chart! Different timeframes :-) [this is in re: VPHM]

    I'm wary of anything that is extended, because we're in a mean market right now and extension is not the norm. I see VPHM as due for a pullback - it has done 5 waves off the low and I think it's pretty much done. I like Jack's monthly chart showing that the 61.8% retrace has been met. That means on the monthly and daily timeframes, we're at resistance. Jeremy, I'd take at least some off the table. It's done right by you, 9's a fabulous entry, but I'm not sure now is the time for greed.

    http://img176.imageshack.us/




    100% agree with you.  You have to always take the fact we are in a bear market into consideration.  I started to point this out earlier but wanted to try to remain as objective as possible.  When I first looked at the chart my first thought was it was due for a pullback being that far above the 50 day.  BUT, anything can happen so that double bottom could still get a confirmation.  If price breaks back below the trend line I would get out of that trade in a heartbeat.
  •  08-24-2008, 10:49 PM 36283 in reply to 36280

    Re: Week of Aug 25-Aug 29: Traders What Are Your Thoughts?

    Reply Quote
    jackg1606:
    Chrib:
    I'm watching CPSL
    It's a momo, a float queen, a China dynamo
    Market could break either way, but whichever way, I think it will be big
    If that way is up, power to the momos
    Plus great low-risk chart formation: upturned 50, broke upside of pennant Friday, wave count is 3 of 3
    Small pullback possible, for safety reasons buy above 5.16, if you're a gambler try buying a pullback.
    I'm already in myself.


    I agree with you that it could break either way.  The weekly is showing a symmetrical triangle.  The textbook way to play that is to wait to see which way it breaks.  It could be played as either a short or a long depending on which direction it decides to move in.


    I trade the daily not the weekly, and it's already broken to the upside on that timeframe.
    This is a hard one to trade on the weekly. All the float queens are; see CBAK, CAEI, FFHL
    You have to book your profit so quickly, but what a profit it can be! FFHL 2->7 in 10 days late last year

    The market I was referring to in the above is the general market. Notice how SPY and SH simultaneously have constructive charts? Buckle up!
  •  08-24-2008, 10:55 PM 36285 in reply to 36283